Investment Philosophy

I write about global investment opportunities, focusing exclusively on stocks that I believe the market has foolishly undervalued.

I categorically reject the notion of making investments based on ideology—ESG and the like are mere distractions. Instead, I adhere to a strictly rational, often contrarian, approach designed to maximise my utility.

Far too many so-called professionals—let alone amateurs—rely on grand macroeconomic theories, operating under the delusion that they possess some privileged understanding of the world’s direction. They attempt to outmaneuver the market by second-guessing broad economic trends, political events, and central bank policies. This, I daresay, is an increasingly futile exercise. In an era of tariffs, perpetual geopolitical strife, and the occasional meme-stock hysteria, the world has become wholly unpredictable. Forecasting tomorrow’s weather is difficult enough—one would have to be truly delusional to believe they can predict the trajectory of a war in Europe, let alone divine which stock some Reddit community will anoint next. I exaggerate, of course, but only slightly. The truth is, relying on macroeconomic foresight alone to generate consistent returns is as naïve as it is arrogant. At this point, it resembles astrology more than it does serious financial analysis.

The same, naturally, applies to technical analysis—a pastime as absurd as reading tea leaves. Attempting to predict when a stock is about to execute a double backflip based on yesterday’s price movements and a few squiggly lines on a chart is nothing short of voodoo nonsense. One might as well stare at the night sky and chart stock trajectories based on star constellations.

Yet, it is precisely this brand of superstition that thrives in the era of democratized trading, where anyone with a phone or laptop fancies themselves an investor. This has fueled the rise of YouTube financial “advisors,” from whom many retail traders take their cues. Unsurprisingly, much of this advice is poor, as there is little incentive to provide sound investment counsel. Instead, to stay relevant, these influencers must produce new content daily, often without proper due diligence. Some even release multiple videos a day—how much serious research could they possibly be doing?

Worse still, even those who claim to follow a disciplined, value-oriented approach fall into the same trap. Many so-called "value" investors do little more than recycle investor presentation slides, cherry-picking numbers designed to impress rather than conducting independent research. They merely echo corporate messaging rather than questioning it.

When their lump-sum portfolios inevitably crumble in a downturn, they liquidate their positions under the vague pretense of “personal reasons,” only to re-enter at the bottom—crafting the illusion of mastery for the next wave of unsuspecting followers.

Nothing in investing is certain, but this is not the mindset of a long-term investor. It is the reckless gambit of charlatans and gamblers, masquerading as men of reason.

Numbers, however, do not lie. A company that is profitable and well-managed will, over time, reward its shareholders. Certainly, there exist unprofitable firms that may one day turn a profit, but given that the world is filled with businesses already generating substantial earnings, why waste time speculating on what might be, when one can invest in what demonstrably works? Even with my rigorous cash flow and growth models, I am already making enough future projections as it is—I see no need to venture into the realm of pure conjecture.

In essence, my approach is disarmingly simple: I identify fundamentally sound businesses, invest in them, and let time do the rest. No need for greed, no need for gambling on ephemeral trends. A steady, respectable return is more than sufficient. The pursuit of stability over reckless speculation allows for sound sleep at night—free from the anxiety of wild swings and erratic downturns. A portfolio built upon robust business models, lower volatility, and, ideally, a generous dividend, ensures that I can hold for the long term without incessantly gnawing at my fingernails. And, as any serious investor knows, long-term compounding yields far greater rewards than frenetic trading ever could.