Stock Screener
How the Stock Screener model works
The screener estimates what a business may be worth based on the cash it can generate over time, then compares that estimate with today's market price.
Free cash flow
\( \text{FCF} = \text{Operating Cash Flow} - \text{Capital Expenditure} \)
Net debt
\( \text{Net Debt} = \text{Debt} - \text{Cash} \)
Growth
\( g = \operatorname{clamp}(\text{5-year FCF CAGR}, -25\%, 25\%) \)
Present value
\( \text{PV of FCF} = \sum_{t=1}^{10} \frac{\text{FCF}_t}{(1 + r)^t} \)
Intrinsic value
\( \text{Intrinsic Value Per Share} = \frac{\text{PV of FCF} + \text{PV of Terminal Value} - \text{Net Debt}}{\text{Shares}} \)
Terminal value
\( \text{Terminal Value} = \frac{\text{FCF}_{10} \times (1 + g_t)}{r - g_t} \)
Present terminal value
\( \text{PV of Terminal Value} = \frac{\text{Terminal Value}}{(1 + r)^{10}} \)
Margin of Safety
\( \text{Margin of Safety} = \frac{\text{Intrinsic Value} - \text{Current Price}}{\text{Current Price}} \)
Clamp means the growth estimate is kept inside a reasonable range: below -25% becomes -25%, above 25% becomes 25%, and values in between stay unchanged. Defaults: \( r = 10\% \), \( g_t = 4\% \), and projected free cash flow runs for 10 years. Each projected cash flow is discounted back to today's value using \( r \). Years 1-5 use the capped FCF growth rate; years 6-10 gradually blend toward terminal growth. Very extreme estimates are filtered out so one unusual company filing does not dominate the list.